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Time-varying dependence between stock markets and oil prices during COVID-19: The case of net oil-exporting countries

Author

Listed:
  • K.P. Prabheesh

    (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad)

  • Bhavesh Garg

    (Indian Institute of Technology Ropar)

  • Rakesh Padhan

    (Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad)

Abstract

This article provides an empirical investigation of the time-varying dependence between oil prices and stock markets in the top ten net oil-exporting countries. Using daily data focusing on COVID-19 period, we implement the DCC-GARCH to identify the dynamic dependence. Then, we apply structural break techniques to detect the shift in the dependence structure. We find that there exists a positive time-varying dependence between oil returns and stock returns during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic wherein the breakpoints mostly coincided with the emergence of oil price war and global stock market crash. Overall, results imply that declining oil prices lead to a fall in stock returns due to lower future earnings for oil companies, exhibiting a signal of reduction in aggregate demand and economic activity in oil-exporting countries. Thus, the high positive co-movement may have ill-effects on portfolio diversification, as the latter will be less effective if the asset returns are highly correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • K.P. Prabheesh & Bhavesh Garg & Rakesh Padhan, 2020. "Time-varying dependence between stock markets and oil prices during COVID-19: The case of net oil-exporting countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2408-2418.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00867
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2022. "Extreme dependence between structural oil shocks and stock markets in GCC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    3. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Hazem Al Samman & Erhan Akkas, 2022. "How Do the Crises of Falling Oil Prices and COVID-19 Affect Economic Sectors in the Rentier Economies? Evidence from the GCC Countries," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 105-127, June.
    5. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Datta, Susanta & Hatekar, Neeraj, 2022. "Range Volatility Spillover across Sectoral Stock Indices during COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Indian Stock Market," MPRA Paper 117285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.
    8. Claudiu T Albulescu & Michel Mina & Cornel Oros, 2021. "Oil-US Stock Market Nexus: Some insights about the New Coronavirus Crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 588-593.
    9. Zheng Zheng Li & Yidong Xiao & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "Does COVID-19 Drive Stock Price Bubbles in Medical Mask?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-6.
    10. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Chang, Lei & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali & Saydaliev, Hayot Berk & Hyder, Mansoor & Dilanchiev, Azer, 2022. "Testing oil price volatility during Covid-19: Global economic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    13. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Duppati, Geeta & Younes, Ben Zaied & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran, 2023. "Time-varying effects of fuel prices on stock market returns during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Stock Markets; Oil Prices; Pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

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